Week 1 NFL Picks

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This week's NFL picks:

KC vs NE: Patriots, by 7, max. Close game for them, by comparison. This one could go bad. Go Pats!

Bills vs. Jets. Bills, by at least 5. If I could get 10 other guys together, we might be able to beat the Jets, who may go 1-15 this year. I'd pick most teams by more vs. Jets, but the Bills offense isn't great, either.

Falcons vs. Bears. Falcons by 4, max. Bears may surprise.

Ravens vs. Bengals. Ravens by 3; could go either way.

Steelers vs. Browns. Steelers by 7, maybe more.

Cardinals vs. Lions. This one's a toss-up. Cardinals finished 50 points more vs. their opponents last year, despite losing record (7-8-1). Stafford never impressed me, and he's not totally healthy. And the Lions find ways to lose. So...Cardinals by 3, but this could go either way.

Texans vs. Jaguars. Texans by at least 10, because the Jags are unbelievably terrible and J.J. Watts raised millions of dollars (expecting to raise just $200,000) for Houston, which has nothing to do with anything related to this post.

Raiders vs. Texans. Carr is impressive, but Mariota is almost as good, and underappreciated. Raiders by 3 in a close one.

Redskins vs. Eagles. Eagles by 3 in another close one. Lots of those this week. Redskins could pull this one out. Both teams may be borderline postseason contenders, up until Week 16.

Rams vs. Colts. Go to the front of the class if you're very familiar with the Colts' QB, career back-up Scott Tolzien, who has started 3 NFL games. Rams by 6, maybe more.

Green Bay vs. Seattle. Probably the best game of the week, and maybe the closest, probably by 4 max, and maybe less. Green Bay wins because I'd pick Rodgers over almost anyone not named Brady. But this could come down to the final play.

Panthers vs. 49ers. Low-scoring game, won by Panthers by 5, max. Neither team excites, but it'll be interesting to see how SF begins its new era.

Cowboys vs. Giants. Prescott betters Eli Manning, but not by much. Cowboys by 4.

Saints vs. Vikings. Saints win, but it won't be a Brees. (sorry) NO by 4.

Chargers vs. Broncos. Denver's QB could impress, but I'm picking the Chargers by 5. But Rivers could find a way to lose, because he does that like it's actually his #1 priority.

[My apologies to those who may have wondered why a non-sports novel review was on my sports blog. Posted to the wrong blog, so my bad.] 

Any Given Sunday

You play badly in football, you deserve to lose.  The Patriots played very badly indeed.  It was obvious after the pick, even though no points were scored on that, and when they went behind 10-3, I called it a loss and went out to dinner.  I was right.  (I'm good at calling their losses very early in the game.)  They deserved to lose, sad to say.  Winning isn't a right; you have to earn it.  Even as a fan of the team, I know this to be so.  They don't deserve to win just because I'm a fan of the team.  (Too many sports fans don't get this simple concept.)

Well, out of the 4 remaining teams, I'd have to call Pittsburgh, simply because they're the only team not severely over-performing.  The Packers, Bears and Jets are all playing over their heads; none of them are as good as they're playing--I don't care what Bill Parcells' famous expression says.  I'd have to pick Pittsburgh to win it all.  (As long as the Jets don't, I don't really care, to be honest.)

If they do, that would give Big Ben 3 Super Bowl wins, and now we're talking Hall of Fame credentials.  This is one of the uncomfortable things about sports, that you can't take individual honors away from a guy just because you don't like him.  It's the reason the Hall hasn't kicked out O.J., and it's why they'll have to let Big Ben in.  There's no doubt that he's not a great person--few of us are, I guess--but he seems to cross the line into seediness.  But if he wins again, he'll quietly have as many rings as Tom Brady, though he's obviously not in the same league as a player. 

That's the NFL today, or at least the Super Bowls in the last 7-10 years: the Patriots, the Colts and the Steelers, with occasional upsets thrown in.  There's parity, for sure, but still, at the peak, you have the same repeaters.  It's the latest secret of the sport: more wins for more teams, but in the end, when it matters most, the same ones are there, with an occasional surprise.