My Football Picks So Far

Photo: Russell Wilson throwing against the Packers, from nfl.com.

6-3 so far with my football picks, including the Patriots loss that I felt was coming, but refused to admit to myself. Today, the surprise of the day for me was the Jaguars, who beat the Texans by 22. (I should've considered the Harvey factor there; dumb on my part.) But I still wouldn't have picked them by 22. The last one I swung and missed on was Cardinals/Lions, which I thought would be a toss-up, but that Detroit won by 12. And though I was right about the Browns losing, Cleveland actually super-impressed, losing just by 3.

And the best tackle of the weekend still is the Friday night play by the security guard at Fenway who obliterated a drunken fan before both his feet touched the outfield grass. I'm watching the players jog into the dugout when suddenly I see a guard running full-tilt into a fan just barely touching the right field dirt with one of his toes. The guard was a blur and the fan didn't know what hit him.

UPDATE: Finished 10-5 for the week. I'll do better.

Week 1 NFL Picks

Photo: Main image promo from NFL.com

This week's NFL picks:

KC vs NE: Patriots, by 7, max. Close game for them, by comparison. This one could go bad. Go Pats!

Bills vs. Jets. Bills, by at least 5. If I could get 10 other guys together, we might be able to beat the Jets, who may go 1-15 this year. I'd pick most teams by more vs. Jets, but the Bills offense isn't great, either.

Falcons vs. Bears. Falcons by 4, max. Bears may surprise.

Ravens vs. Bengals. Ravens by 3; could go either way.

Steelers vs. Browns. Steelers by 7, maybe more.

Cardinals vs. Lions. This one's a toss-up. Cardinals finished 50 points more vs. their opponents last year, despite losing record (7-8-1). Stafford never impressed me, and he's not totally healthy. And the Lions find ways to lose. So...Cardinals by 3, but this could go either way.

Texans vs. Jaguars. Texans by at least 10, because the Jags are unbelievably terrible and J.J. Watts raised millions of dollars (expecting to raise just $200,000) for Houston, which has nothing to do with anything related to this post.

Raiders vs. Texans. Carr is impressive, but Mariota is almost as good, and underappreciated. Raiders by 3 in a close one.

Redskins vs. Eagles. Eagles by 3 in another close one. Lots of those this week. Redskins could pull this one out. Both teams may be borderline postseason contenders, up until Week 16.

Rams vs. Colts. Go to the front of the class if you're very familiar with the Colts' QB, career back-up Scott Tolzien, who has started 3 NFL games. Rams by 6, maybe more.

Green Bay vs. Seattle. Probably the best game of the week, and maybe the closest, probably by 4 max, and maybe less. Green Bay wins because I'd pick Rodgers over almost anyone not named Brady. But this could come down to the final play.

Panthers vs. 49ers. Low-scoring game, won by Panthers by 5, max. Neither team excites, but it'll be interesting to see how SF begins its new era.

Cowboys vs. Giants. Prescott betters Eli Manning, but not by much. Cowboys by 4.

Saints vs. Vikings. Saints win, but it won't be a Brees. (sorry) NO by 4.

Chargers vs. Broncos. Denver's QB could impress, but I'm picking the Chargers by 5. But Rivers could find a way to lose, because he does that like it's actually his #1 priority.

[My apologies to those who may have wondered why a non-sports novel review was on my sports blog. Posted to the wrong blog, so my bad.] 

Any Given Sunday

You play badly in football, you deserve to lose.  The Patriots played very badly indeed.  It was obvious after the pick, even though no points were scored on that, and when they went behind 10-3, I called it a loss and went out to dinner.  I was right.  (I'm good at calling their losses very early in the game.)  They deserved to lose, sad to say.  Winning isn't a right; you have to earn it.  Even as a fan of the team, I know this to be so.  They don't deserve to win just because I'm a fan of the team.  (Too many sports fans don't get this simple concept.)

Well, out of the 4 remaining teams, I'd have to call Pittsburgh, simply because they're the only team not severely over-performing.  The Packers, Bears and Jets are all playing over their heads; none of them are as good as they're playing--I don't care what Bill Parcells' famous expression says.  I'd have to pick Pittsburgh to win it all.  (As long as the Jets don't, I don't really care, to be honest.)

If they do, that would give Big Ben 3 Super Bowl wins, and now we're talking Hall of Fame credentials.  This is one of the uncomfortable things about sports, that you can't take individual honors away from a guy just because you don't like him.  It's the reason the Hall hasn't kicked out O.J., and it's why they'll have to let Big Ben in.  There's no doubt that he's not a great person--few of us are, I guess--but he seems to cross the line into seediness.  But if he wins again, he'll quietly have as many rings as Tom Brady, though he's obviously not in the same league as a player. 

That's the NFL today, or at least the Super Bowls in the last 7-10 years: the Patriots, the Colts and the Steelers, with occasional upsets thrown in.  There's parity, for sure, but still, at the peak, you have the same repeaters.  It's the latest secret of the sport: more wins for more teams, but in the end, when it matters most, the same ones are there, with an occasional surprise.

5 Baseball Musings

Quick randomness:

--Trevor Hoffman retired too late.  If you're a player having spent your entire career for one organization over a span of 15 years or more, you must reflect upon your decision to play for another team.  Trevor Hoffman finishing his career with the Brewers isn't like Tony Gwynn doing the same, but it's close.  He's free to do what he wants, and certainly the money was outstanding, as the Brewers severely overpaid, but...leaves a slightly bad taste.  Not like Favre leaving the Packers left a bad taste, but, again, it's comparable.

--With the trade of Matt Garza, the Rays have almost completely dismantled its playoff teams of the past few years.  They're going down now as the Rangers continue to ascend.  The lousy attendance at Rays games and the small fanbase were going to catch up with them sooner or later.  Hard to figure, as the Rays have been a winning and exciting team for some years now, certainly for long enough to build a solid fanbase.  But it didn't happen.  You might remember when the Braves weren't selling out home playoff games in the 1990s and 2000s, and when the Marlins couldn't draw during their 2 World Series winning years.  Sinful.

--If the Rays' rookies come through, they'll give the Yanks a fight for 2nd place.  Either way, though, don't look for the Wild Card team to come from the American League East this year.

--What happened to the Angels?  Why doesn't anyone want to play for them anymore?  Nobody's changed in the administration, and I'd play for their manager any day.  They have trucks of money to dump on players, as they always have, and yet nobody's taking it anymore.  They're losing players like they're the Expos, and they can't replace them.  The ones they've lost in the last 3-4 years could form an All-star team.  The players union knows something about the Angels that I and the more-than-casual fan don't know.

--I'll be in the stands for at least 4 Sox games this year.  I have a truly awesome friend who brings me (we travel for the other two games).  I TOLD YOU--I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO IT!!!