Mine, from an earlier blog:
Griffey
Trammell
Bonds
Clemens
Piazza
Bagwell
McGwire OR Sosa
Schilling
Mussina
Martinez OR Hoffman
Rosenthal's MVP Ballot:
Bagwell
Bonds
Clemens
Griffey
Hoffman
Martinez
Mussina
Piazza
Raines
Schilling
Notes:
Our lists are essentially the same, except that I chose Trammell and McGwire (or Sosa) and Rosenthal left those guys completely off his ballot. He chose Raines, who I left off my ballot for reasons explained in my blog, linked above. He also chose Edgar Martinez AND Trevor Hoffman, while I was only willing to choose one of those guys, because a) Martinez essentially pinch-hit 4 or 5 times a game (even David Ortiz has played the field more--and better--than Edgar) and because b) Hoffman essentially pitched one inning every three days or so, on average. In other words, these guys were specialists who simply didn't play as often as everyone else.
Alan Trammel, a shockingly underappreciated player (by me, too, until recently, and still by Rosenthal), played the field, every game, at a high level for a very long time, and was one of the top shortstops ever, according to JAWS. Even better than Jeter, and other HOF shortstops. His numbers (below the JAWS stats) show that he was better than your average HOF shortstop. In other words, he should be a HOF shortstop. (You should view his stats at baseball-reference.com, here.)
That means more to me than a guy who pinch hits a few times a game and never fielded. And you can't say that Martinez played his position well, and it's not his fault he didn't play the field as a DH...except that Edgar Martinez was a truly awful defensive player, to a very heavy, negative degree (look at his page at baseball-reference.com). He was so bad that, yes, he was a DH because he couldn't field, not because everyone else was already on the field and you had to hit him somewhere. The Mariners correctly kept him off the field because he was a defensive liability, to the tune of over -9.7. That's bad. And Hoffman? His heaviest workload as a closer was in 1996, when he pitched 88 innings. (You can see his baseball-reference page here.)
Overall I'm okay with Rosenthal's picks. I'd rather he have chosen Trammel over Raines, but as I mentioned in my blog entry about my picks, I feel Raines is HOF worthy as well. But not as much as Trammel. Sportswriters have dropped the ball on Trammel for the 15th (and, alas) last time. But I'm confident the Veterans Committee (or whatever it's called now) will fix that wrong in a hurry.
Lastly, baseball-reference.com's JAWS says that Curt Schilling is the 27th best starting pitcher in baseball history, and way ahead of the HOF average pitcher. And Mike Mussina is 28th!!!
Showing posts with label Mussina. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mussina. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Monday, November 9, 2015
2016 HOF Ballot
Photo: Ken Griffey, Jr. from his Wikipedia page
I know I promised a lot of blogs about last year's HOF ballot and winners & losers, and I really dropped the ball on that (pun intended). I'll follow through this time. I think.
The ballot: Garret Anderson, Brad Ausmus, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Luis Castillo, Roger Clemens, David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark Grudzielanek, Mike Hampton, Trevor Hoffman, Jason Kendall, Jeff Kent, Mike Lowell, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa, Mike Sweeney, Alan Trammell, Billy Wagner, Larry Walker, Randy Winn.
My 10 picks, and the order of my vehemence (c'mon, that's a nice phrase):
1. Ken Griffey, Jr. (of course)
2. Alan Trammell (yes; see recent blog entry)
3. Barry Bonds
4. Roger Clemens
5. Mike Piazza
6. Jeff Bagwell (I know the sniff of steroid scandal surrounds these last four, but none of them ever failed an MLB drug test, or got suspended for PED use. And it's time the writers got off their high-horse.)
These first six are no-brainers, in my opinion. And repeat after me: Baseball writers are not judges or pariahs. Baseball writers are not judges or pariahs. Baseball writers are not...
The next four should go in, but I'm ambivalent about them, in almost equal vehemence. I'd be okay with none of the four getting in, but the stats show that they should:
7. Mark McGwire OR Sammy Sosa (Repeat after me again: Baseball writers are not...McGwire gets the nod from me because of his Gold-Glove caliber defense at first.)
8. Curt Schilling (May place ahead of McGwire and Sosa, whose stats are better and who made bigger overall impacts during the regular season. Schilling's numbers are better than Mussina's overall, but not by as much as you would think. Voters aren't supposed to consider the post-season while voting, but...How could you not with Schilling?)
9. Mike Mussina (I see him as a Veterans Committee pick many years from now.)
10. Edgar Martinez OR Trevor Hoffman (The writers see these guys as part-time players, almost. In truth, Hoffman might have a better shot than Edgar. But the closer role and the DH are positions, nonetheless, even if a typical closer pitches just 75 innings a year and the DH essentially pinch-hits 5 times a game.)
I still can't justify Tim Raines getting in, though I mentioned last year that if he hadn't played at the same time as Rickey Henderson (and if that vial of coke hadn't shattered in his uniform pocket when he slid into home that day), then he'd be in the Hall. I still believe that.
Lee Smith, as I said last year, was simply not a dominant closer. Period. Eckersley and Rivera were, and they're in the Hall. Hoffman was not dominant like those two were, ever, but he was more than Smith was, every year. I'm not sure he was dominant enough to make my Hall. Probably at some point. Not this time. The writers will vote him in, anyway, because they won't vote in the steroids-stained, despite their innocence in MLB's court of law. But he should get in before Billy Wagner does. Wagner probably doesn't belong at all. Same goes from McGriff and Sheffield, though Sheffield was probably more of an overall force than McGriff. Had either played for the dominant teams of their time, however, each would be a lock for the Hall. But whispers surround them as well, especially Sheffield.
I'll have to research Jeff Kent's numbers, but I'd be surprised if he wasn't among the top-10 best-hitting second basemen of all-time. I hear that when Kent played with Bonds on the Giants, a reporter asked everyone else on the team not named Kent or Bonds to vote for the most-hated man on the team. Every player said it was Kent, and it wasn't close.
Had Nomar never been drilled in the wrist that day, he would've been better than Jeter, especially in peak value. But baseball is full of what-ifs. He broke his wrist and he faltered.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
My 2015 Hall of Fame Ballot
I'm not eligible to vote, of course, but if I were, I would vote for:
The three first-time no-brainers:
1. Pedro Martinez (highest peak-value pitcher of my, or any, generation; best two consecutive seasons ever; unbelievable when considering that MLB was at its offensive peak his entire career; best ERA+ ever; one year he and Clemens finished 1-2 in ERA--and Clemens' ERA was about two runs per nine innings higher that year; Red Sox personnel who saw both Martinez and Clemens pitch say unanimously that Pedro was a greater, more dominant pitcher)
2. Randy Johnson (won over 300 games; #2 Ks lifetime--and famously gave John Kruk nightmares)
3. John Smoltz (though I wish he'd remained a starter; his greatness is hard to statistically prove, but I saw his whole career, and it's there nonetheless)
A few who MLB and the Commissioner have never excluded from HOF voting because they have never, ever, not once, been proven by MLB to have used performance-enhancing drugs. And, the media is not of a higher moral caliber, AND it's the Commissioner's job to discipline or banish ballplayers (see: Pete Rose and ARod), not the HOF voters / print media. Therefore:
4. Roger Clemens (statistically one of the top-3 pitchers of all-time, with Walter Johnson and Cy Young; struck out 20 batters, in one game, twice--ten years apart)
5. Barry Bonds (statistically the best ballplayer ever, if you forget Babe Ruth would've also been in the Hall as a pitcher; the only player I've ever seen consistently intentionally walked with the bases loaded; the only player to come close to walking over 150+ times a year, every year, and who actually walked over 200 times a year--and more than once. Bonds and Clemens are amongst the few players ever to rate amongst the top-5 all-time in peak value and career value. We have never seen any one player effect a single game as much, as frequently, as Bonds did)
6. Craig Biggio (quietly kept from the Hall so far because of very quiet PED whispers; see above, and 3,000 hits and GGs at three different positions don't lie)
7. Mike Piazza (mentioned in the same breath as Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella and Johnny Bench as the best offensive catcher of all-time--though I think I could steal second off him, even now. The stats show that Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all-time; why he wasn't made a first baseman or left fielder much earlier in his career, thereby saving him from at least three career-ending concussions, is a mystery)
8. Jeff Bagwell (with hesitation, but a .297 career average, with 449 career homers, 1500+ career RBIs, 1401 career BBs, and a career .400+ OBP and a career .500+ Slugging % all mean he had one of the all-time best slugging careers--and he was a GG first baseman, too; one of the highest career-value players of all-time)
And two who are vastly underrated, if you look at their career stats versus the average HOF starting pitcher. In short, these two are slightly--or better than slightly--greater than the average HOF starting pitcher. In other words, they're Hall of Famers:
9. Curt Schilling (and not just for the bloody-sock game; one of the few pitchers to be one of the all-time best for three different teams: Phillies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox. And he was considered borderline or slightly better than borderline great while still active. #1 all-time, Ks per walk, amongst starters. He won't get too many votes in RI, or from people he pissed off with his mouth, but...)
10. Mike Mussina (career stats are better than 40 of the 59 starting pitchers in the Hall. These two are the two bulldogs of their generation--though Mussina was much quieter about it, possibly to his detriment--but are also vastly underrated considering the offensively-explosive American League East that they spent much of their careers in. Not to mention the entire offensive juggernaut all of MLB was during their whole careers, where ballparks were like pinball machines)
A few other comments:
Trammel / Morris
Many writers have put Alan Trammel on their ballots. This cannot, of course, be taken seriously, especially with Jack Morris still knocking on the door. To include his name and not Morris's is a travesty, though I am not a fan of Morris as a person. But when I think of a HOF player from the early-to-mid 80s Tigers, I think Jack Morris, not Alan Trammel. Plus, his Game 7 shutout...Jack Morris fits definition-B of a HOFer, to a T--Amongst the greatest at his position for any 10-year stretch. (Like Jim Rice, 1975-1986; Rice fits that to a T as well, and is not in--and should not be in--for any other reason.) I'll put it to you like this: Who won the most games in the 1980s? Jack Morris. The Tigers and the Twins do not win the World Series without him. I would've put Morris on my list, but you can only have 10, and the above 10 are more deserving. Maybe next year.
Tim Raines
His name has also been mentioned on many ballots. This is a surprise, yet not. Had he not played his career alongside Rickey Henderson, he'd already be in the Hall. Well, and if he hadn't slid across home plate and shattered the vial of crack cocaine in his back pocket. So, if I have it right, voters would keep Bonds and Clemens out of the Hall because of their never-proven (Did they use? Of course. But in what court was that proven, besides the Court of Public Opinion?) use of steroids, but Raines should slide in despite his very obvious use of crack cocaine? Wasn't crack cocaine on the list of banned substances as well? Having said that, he's arguably a worthy HOFer. But not this year.
Fred McGriff
Has essentially the same qualifications as I mentioned for Bagwell, but less so. But still: 2,490 hits, with 493 HRs and 1550 RBIs, with a .284 career average, a .377 career OBP, and a .500+ Slugging %. The line I draw here is a) Bagwell has to get in before McGriff; b) Bagwell was a GGer at 1B and McGriff wasn't; and c) Bagwell was considered borderline-to-better great while still playing, and McGriff wasn't. He was never even considered to be great at all during his career, nor even the best on his team. Having said that, if McGriff had gotten 10 more hits and 7 more Homers, you could say he was a .285 hitter with 500 homers and 1,500 RBIs, which would get him in, sooner or later. I'm not keeping him out because of 10 singles and 7 homers. But not this year.
Carlos Delgado
See: Fred McGriff. I'd take the Crime Dawg over Delgado in a pinch.
Lee Smith
Here's where a long career can vex lesser voters. His overall career numbers have piled up, but a pile-up of Yugos doesn't mean you have a lot of value. You just have a big pile-up. To be blunt: I saw Lee Smith's entire career, and he wasn't great. He wasn't lights-out, as a voter said today. Rivera and The Eck were lights-out closers, year in and year out, and for their careers. Trevor Hoffman, Uehara, and maybe Lee Smith had one or two or three great years (Uehara had half of a great year and turned it into a World Series ring), but that doesn't make them great. I turned away from games (though not Sox games, as Boston hit Rivera well) when Big Mo came in. But I never turned away when Lee Smith came in, especially when he pitched with the Sox. I felt teams always had a decent chance against him. A good pitcher will save the vast majority (80% to 85%) of games he pitches in, especially for just three to five batters. And that's what Smith did. Makes him good, maybe even very good, and maybe he had a couple of great seasons, but that's not the Hall of Fame to me. Rivera and The Eck didn't walk too many (they're amongst the best all-time, for relievers, at Ks per walk) and they didn't give up too many hits per nine. Lee Smith did both. With a very high 1.25 WHIP.
The three first-time no-brainers:
1. Pedro Martinez (highest peak-value pitcher of my, or any, generation; best two consecutive seasons ever; unbelievable when considering that MLB was at its offensive peak his entire career; best ERA+ ever; one year he and Clemens finished 1-2 in ERA--and Clemens' ERA was about two runs per nine innings higher that year; Red Sox personnel who saw both Martinez and Clemens pitch say unanimously that Pedro was a greater, more dominant pitcher)
2. Randy Johnson (won over 300 games; #2 Ks lifetime--and famously gave John Kruk nightmares)
3. John Smoltz (though I wish he'd remained a starter; his greatness is hard to statistically prove, but I saw his whole career, and it's there nonetheless)
A few who MLB and the Commissioner have never excluded from HOF voting because they have never, ever, not once, been proven by MLB to have used performance-enhancing drugs. And, the media is not of a higher moral caliber, AND it's the Commissioner's job to discipline or banish ballplayers (see: Pete Rose and ARod), not the HOF voters / print media. Therefore:
4. Roger Clemens (statistically one of the top-3 pitchers of all-time, with Walter Johnson and Cy Young; struck out 20 batters, in one game, twice--ten years apart)
5. Barry Bonds (statistically the best ballplayer ever, if you forget Babe Ruth would've also been in the Hall as a pitcher; the only player I've ever seen consistently intentionally walked with the bases loaded; the only player to come close to walking over 150+ times a year, every year, and who actually walked over 200 times a year--and more than once. Bonds and Clemens are amongst the few players ever to rate amongst the top-5 all-time in peak value and career value. We have never seen any one player effect a single game as much, as frequently, as Bonds did)
6. Craig Biggio (quietly kept from the Hall so far because of very quiet PED whispers; see above, and 3,000 hits and GGs at three different positions don't lie)
7. Mike Piazza (mentioned in the same breath as Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella and Johnny Bench as the best offensive catcher of all-time--though I think I could steal second off him, even now. The stats show that Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all-time; why he wasn't made a first baseman or left fielder much earlier in his career, thereby saving him from at least three career-ending concussions, is a mystery)
8. Jeff Bagwell (with hesitation, but a .297 career average, with 449 career homers, 1500+ career RBIs, 1401 career BBs, and a career .400+ OBP and a career .500+ Slugging % all mean he had one of the all-time best slugging careers--and he was a GG first baseman, too; one of the highest career-value players of all-time)
And two who are vastly underrated, if you look at their career stats versus the average HOF starting pitcher. In short, these two are slightly--or better than slightly--greater than the average HOF starting pitcher. In other words, they're Hall of Famers:
9. Curt Schilling (and not just for the bloody-sock game; one of the few pitchers to be one of the all-time best for three different teams: Phillies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox. And he was considered borderline or slightly better than borderline great while still active. #1 all-time, Ks per walk, amongst starters. He won't get too many votes in RI, or from people he pissed off with his mouth, but...)
10. Mike Mussina (career stats are better than 40 of the 59 starting pitchers in the Hall. These two are the two bulldogs of their generation--though Mussina was much quieter about it, possibly to his detriment--but are also vastly underrated considering the offensively-explosive American League East that they spent much of their careers in. Not to mention the entire offensive juggernaut all of MLB was during their whole careers, where ballparks were like pinball machines)
A few other comments:
Trammel / Morris
Many writers have put Alan Trammel on their ballots. This cannot, of course, be taken seriously, especially with Jack Morris still knocking on the door. To include his name and not Morris's is a travesty, though I am not a fan of Morris as a person. But when I think of a HOF player from the early-to-mid 80s Tigers, I think Jack Morris, not Alan Trammel. Plus, his Game 7 shutout...Jack Morris fits definition-B of a HOFer, to a T--Amongst the greatest at his position for any 10-year stretch. (Like Jim Rice, 1975-1986; Rice fits that to a T as well, and is not in--and should not be in--for any other reason.) I'll put it to you like this: Who won the most games in the 1980s? Jack Morris. The Tigers and the Twins do not win the World Series without him. I would've put Morris on my list, but you can only have 10, and the above 10 are more deserving. Maybe next year.
Tim Raines
His name has also been mentioned on many ballots. This is a surprise, yet not. Had he not played his career alongside Rickey Henderson, he'd already be in the Hall. Well, and if he hadn't slid across home plate and shattered the vial of crack cocaine in his back pocket. So, if I have it right, voters would keep Bonds and Clemens out of the Hall because of their never-proven (Did they use? Of course. But in what court was that proven, besides the Court of Public Opinion?) use of steroids, but Raines should slide in despite his very obvious use of crack cocaine? Wasn't crack cocaine on the list of banned substances as well? Having said that, he's arguably a worthy HOFer. But not this year.
Fred McGriff
Has essentially the same qualifications as I mentioned for Bagwell, but less so. But still: 2,490 hits, with 493 HRs and 1550 RBIs, with a .284 career average, a .377 career OBP, and a .500+ Slugging %. The line I draw here is a) Bagwell has to get in before McGriff; b) Bagwell was a GGer at 1B and McGriff wasn't; and c) Bagwell was considered borderline-to-better great while still playing, and McGriff wasn't. He was never even considered to be great at all during his career, nor even the best on his team. Having said that, if McGriff had gotten 10 more hits and 7 more Homers, you could say he was a .285 hitter with 500 homers and 1,500 RBIs, which would get him in, sooner or later. I'm not keeping him out because of 10 singles and 7 homers. But not this year.
Carlos Delgado
See: Fred McGriff. I'd take the Crime Dawg over Delgado in a pinch.
Lee Smith
Here's where a long career can vex lesser voters. His overall career numbers have piled up, but a pile-up of Yugos doesn't mean you have a lot of value. You just have a big pile-up. To be blunt: I saw Lee Smith's entire career, and he wasn't great. He wasn't lights-out, as a voter said today. Rivera and The Eck were lights-out closers, year in and year out, and for their careers. Trevor Hoffman, Uehara, and maybe Lee Smith had one or two or three great years (Uehara had half of a great year and turned it into a World Series ring), but that doesn't make them great. I turned away from games (though not Sox games, as Boston hit Rivera well) when Big Mo came in. But I never turned away when Lee Smith came in, especially when he pitched with the Sox. I felt teams always had a decent chance against him. A good pitcher will save the vast majority (80% to 85%) of games he pitches in, especially for just three to five batters. And that's what Smith did. Makes him good, maybe even very good, and maybe he had a couple of great seasons, but that's not the Hall of Fame to me. Rivera and The Eck didn't walk too many (they're amongst the best all-time, for relievers, at Ks per walk) and they didn't give up too many hits per nine. Lee Smith did both. With a very high 1.25 WHIP.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Next HOF Vote
The following players will be on the next HOF ballot:
Moises Alou
Jeff Bagwell
Armando Benitez
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Sean Casey
Roger Clemens
Ray Durham
Eric Gagne
Tom Glavine
Luis Gonzalez
Jacque Jones
Todd Jones
Jeff Kent
Paul Lo Duca
Greg Maddux
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Mike Mussina
Hideo Nomo
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Kenny Rogers
Curt Schilling
Richie Sexson
Lee Smith
J.T. Snow
Sammy Sosa
Frank Thomas
Mike Timlin
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Other players eligible on the ballot are:
Moises Alou
Armando Benitez
Sean Casey
Ray Durham
Eric Gagne
Luis Gonzalez
Jacque Jones
Todd Jones
Paul Lo Duca
Hideo Nomo
Kenny Rogers
Richie Sexson
J.T. Snow
Mike Timlin
The players passed over by the BBWAA for the HOF for at least fifteen years, who are now eligible this year via the Expansion Era Committee (formerly known as the Veterans Committee), and the managers and executives now eligible for the HOF, are:
Dave Concepcion
Bobby Cox
Steve Garvey
Tommy John
Tony La Russa
Billy Martin
Marvin Miller
Dave Parker
Dan Quisenberry
Ted Simmons
George Steinbrenner
Joe Torre
That's a lotta names. I'll cover them, their stats, their HOF worthiness, and their HOF chances in the upcoming blogs here. Feel free to pipe in now or then for your favorite (or least favorite) player.
This might be one of the best ballots ever in the sport, all of them very good, many of them borderline great, and many of them jumping over that line into actual greatness. The sheer quality of players here makes the list also one of the hardest ever to vote on, and PEDs is the monkey wrench into the whole system that might keep a few HOF-worthy players out permanently, even though they were never actually convicted by MLB for ever using them.
Moises Alou
Jeff Bagwell
Armando Benitez
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Sean Casey
Roger Clemens
Ray Durham
Eric Gagne
Tom Glavine
Luis Gonzalez
Jacque Jones
Todd Jones
Jeff Kent
Paul Lo Duca
Greg Maddux
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Mike Mussina
Hideo Nomo
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Kenny Rogers
Curt Schilling
Richie Sexson
Lee Smith
J.T. Snow
Sammy Sosa
Frank Thomas
Mike Timlin
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Other players eligible on the ballot are:
Moises Alou
Armando Benitez
Sean Casey
Ray Durham
Eric Gagne
Luis Gonzalez
Jacque Jones
Todd Jones
Paul Lo Duca
Hideo Nomo
Kenny Rogers
Richie Sexson
J.T. Snow
Mike Timlin
The players passed over by the BBWAA for the HOF for at least fifteen years, who are now eligible this year via the Expansion Era Committee (formerly known as the Veterans Committee), and the managers and executives now eligible for the HOF, are:
Dave Concepcion
Bobby Cox
Steve Garvey
Tommy John
Tony La Russa
Billy Martin
Marvin Miller
Dave Parker
Dan Quisenberry
Ted Simmons
George Steinbrenner
Joe Torre
That's a lotta names. I'll cover them, their stats, their HOF worthiness, and their HOF chances in the upcoming blogs here. Feel free to pipe in now or then for your favorite (or least favorite) player.
This might be one of the best ballots ever in the sport, all of them very good, many of them borderline great, and many of them jumping over that line into actual greatness. The sheer quality of players here makes the list also one of the hardest ever to vote on, and PEDs is the monkey wrench into the whole system that might keep a few HOF-worthy players out permanently, even though they were never actually convicted by MLB for ever using them.
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