Showing posts with label Jeter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeter. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Rosenthal's HOF Picks and Mine -- Trammel, Schilling and Mussina

Mine, from an earlier blog:

Griffey
Trammell
Bonds
Clemens
Piazza
Bagwell
McGwire OR Sosa
Schilling
Mussina
Martinez OR Hoffman

Rosenthal's MVP Ballot:

Bagwell
Bonds
Clemens
Griffey
Hoffman
Martinez
Mussina
Piazza
Raines
Schilling

Notes:

Our lists are essentially the same, except that I chose Trammell and McGwire (or Sosa) and Rosenthal left those guys completely off his ballot. He chose Raines, who I left off my ballot for reasons explained in my blog, linked above. He also chose Edgar Martinez AND Trevor Hoffman, while I was only willing to choose one of those guys, because a) Martinez essentially pinch-hit 4 or 5 times a game (even David Ortiz has played the field more--and better--than Edgar) and because b) Hoffman essentially pitched one inning every three days or so, on average. In other words, these guys were specialists who simply didn't play as often as everyone else.

Alan Trammel, a shockingly underappreciated player (by me, too, until recently, and still by Rosenthal), played the field, every game, at a high level for a very long time, and was one of the top shortstops ever, according to JAWS. Even better than Jeter, and other HOF shortstops. His numbers (below the JAWS stats) show that he was better than your average HOF shortstop.  In other words, he should be a HOF shortstop. (You should view his stats at baseball-reference.com, here.)

That means more to me than a guy who pinch hits a few times a game and never fielded. And you can't say that Martinez played his position well, and it's not his fault he didn't play the field as a DH...except that Edgar Martinez was a truly awful defensive player, to a very heavy, negative degree (look at his page at baseball-reference.com). He was so bad that, yes, he was a DH because he couldn't field, not because everyone else was already on the field and you had to hit him somewhere. The Mariners correctly kept him off the field because he was a defensive liability, to the tune of over -9.7.  That's bad. And Hoffman? His heaviest workload as a closer was in 1996, when he pitched 88 innings. (You can see his baseball-reference page here.)

Overall I'm okay with Rosenthal's picks. I'd rather he have chosen Trammel over Raines, but as I mentioned in my blog entry about my picks, I feel Raines is HOF worthy as well. But not as much as Trammel. Sportswriters have dropped the ball on Trammel for the 15th (and, alas) last time. But I'm confident the Veterans Committee (or whatever it's called now) will fix that wrong in a hurry.

Lastly, baseball-reference.com's JAWS says that Curt Schilling is the 27th best starting pitcher in baseball history, and way ahead of the HOF average pitcher. And Mike Mussina is 28th!!!

Friday, March 13, 2015

Red Sox 2015 Spring So Far, and My Picks

Some quick points--

--Remember, it's just the Spring.  I haven't seen a spring that really meant anything for the regular season since 1984, when the Tigers steamrolled through their spring and then started the Regular Season 35-5, thereby ending the race in June.

--Having said that, the Sox have looked good.  Or, more accurately, they haven't looked bad.  Everyone's hitting decently and nobody besides Rusney has gotten injured.

--In a weak-looking American League East, the Sox could win the division.

--Or, with injuries, they could finish last.  Who knows?

--I'm sorry to lose David Ross, but he wasn't getting younger, and the Sox need to see what Swihart and company can do.  The backup they got to replace Ross looks just as good defensively.

--Not sorry to see Middlebrooks go, especially since his stupid selfie took Jenny Dell away from us for awhile.  And, oh yeah, he wasn't hitting or fielding well.  And he did get in the way of the runner.

--Very surprised, and very glad, to hear that Jenny Dell is returning.  Figured she'd go to CA with him, since they're married and all.

--And here's to hoping that all that sordidness is behind us now, and Jerry Remy can laugh again.

--The ones to watch this spring are Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Weeks, Victorino and the newest outfielders, Rusney and Moncada.  I know Panda and Ramirez will hit.  In the later innings of games they're ahead, Holt or Betts will take over for Hanley in left.

--Gold-glove Jackie Bradley is the odd man out in the outfield, since he's defense-only at this point, and Holt can play the outfield and infield.  And Holt's still getting on base.  Bradley is, too, but he did at this time last year as well, and for about a month thereafter.  But then the wheels came off.

--And Daniel Nava should be looking over his shoulder, too.  He can spell at first, but so can Holt (surprisingly, for his size), and Nava's not going to be a defensive replacement in the outfield.  So if he's not starting, he's not playing at all.  Nava is an excellent three-quarters of-the-year player (see: two years ago, when he was in the top-10 in average and OBP), but even then he never saw the playoffs.

--Two new outfielders brand new in the country just got about $100 million between them.  There's a great hitter in left, GG-caliber Victorino in right, and Betts (a GG-caliber guy himself who gets on base), or Rusney Castillo when he gets healthy, or Moncada, or Brock Holt (who's almost GG-caliber himself sometimes) or Weeks in center.  So, where exactly is Nava to play, except to spell Napoli at first.  And what if Napoli is healthy again?  I like Nava, but...Bradley, Moncada and Castillo all open in Pawtucket (or Providence?!?) this year--and all three are potential Gold Glove winners.  And Moncada and Castillo are at least very good hitters.  And there are too many outfielders even without those guys.  If I'm Nava, I don't buy another house around here.

--Though he probably stays around if Napoli never gets fully healthy.  Might see a platoon there.

--It should also be said that great three-quarters players like Nava have much better careers in the NL.  Like in Philly, for example.

--Pedroia looks revitalized to me.  Hopefully his hands and fingers stay healthy.

--Not having an ace is not the worst thing in the world.  But Cole Hamels probably nails down the division for them.

--A trade for Hamels probably means Bogaerts and Betts and someone else from the outfield leaves, maybe Bradley if someone needs a GG-fourth outfielder, which NL teams often do, especially if the pitcher's spot comes up in the late innings.  If that happens, Nava still probably doesn't have a job, as Ramirez, Victorino, one or both of the newest guys, and Brock Holt are still around.  (Holt might go in that trade as well.)

--With this many pitchers who pitch to contact this year, the Sox infield had best be flawless.

--And I don't know that such a staff goes too far in the postseason, where firepower generally rules.

--Unless you're Detroit.

--Late-inning relief looks a little iffy, but I wouldn't be surprised if Uehara or one of the newest guys steps it up and does well.  Mujica, I'm guessing, is gone as part of a trade.

--Betts and Holt are the lead-off batters this year.  Victorino, Pedroia or Weeks in a pinch.  But there's no shortage of table-setters this year.

--Pencil Big Papi in for 25-30 and 90-100 this year.  But his 40/125 years are over.

--Youkilis and Manny are two more ex-patriots working for the Cubs this year, for those keeping track.  Now, with the Dodgers, there are two NL Red Sox teams this year.  Oakland used to be one.

--So...where will Boston finish?

--I don't see Baltimore repeating, though it could.  But there seems too much uncertainty, bitterness, and flat-out hostility and strangeness going on there.  Even Duquette didn't know if he wanted to come or go.  Very odd for a Cinderella team like that to suddenly hate itself.  I don't see Adam Jones or Davis producing like that again, at the same time.  The relief looks shaky again, especially with Andrew Miller gone to NY (!).  Markakis left and wasn't replaced.  If they finish in first, it won't be by much.  But I don't see it.  Baltimore had better start off very well, or it'll implode. 

--Toronto could surprise.  Nobody outside the offense really stands out, but...they could win 93 games, which might be enough to win this weak division.  And it should be said that the Wild Card will not come from the American League East this year.

--The Yankees, who have not replaced Rivera or Jeter, will not do well this year, as they are old, and hefty, and still A-rod-ridden.  (And boring to watch.  If John Sterling is the most interesting part of your team, that's not good.)  A-Rod will be a huge distraction, and will undoubtedly do something to get himself released or suspended.  Still, a bad team, and a circus.  No, thanks.

--Tampa Bay?  Maybe, but doubtful.  Often, they were a decent team held together by black masking tape and Joe Maddon.  And Maddon leaving tells me there was handwriting on the wall I couldn't see from here.  (And the Cubs definitely colluded to get him.  Where's that investigation?)

--So...Boston or Toronto or Baltimore finishes first.  I'll go with Boston, with reservations.  Toronto's second.  Baltimore will crash and burn, then right itself when Buck Showalter gives everyone the Death Glare, and micro-manages everyone into submission.  And then Dan Duquette will become his socially-endearing self and bore everyone into submission.  Baltimore then floats and finishes third, at, or slightly-above, .500.  New York will sink to the bottom, then panic and spend billions on over-the-hill but-still-good players and not finish in the basement.  Which is where Tampa Bay will be.  (Though it could be a flip with those two.)

My picks for the American League East, then:

Boston
Toronto
Baltimore
New York
Tampa Bay

That looks weird, but that's how I see it.

Any thoughts?   

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Derek Jeter

I know I'm a little behind on my HOF posts, and on my posts in general for this site.  Having said that, a few words about Derek Jeter, after his last game today at Fenway Park:

--Obvious HOF because of his lifetime stats, most obvious his 3,464 hits, 6th most all-time.

--Also top-10 all-time in ABs, PAs, Runs Scored and Singles.  Considering he batted 1st or 2nd the vast majority of the time, these are excellent things for him to be amongst the greatest of all-time.  Probably the greatest second-in-the-order hitter ever.

--Some surprises (all this is courtesy of baseball-reference.com):

-12th all-time in Times-on-Base.  If you consider the all-time greats of Ted Williams (okay, shorter career), Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, etc., all those you'd think of as all-time super-stars, the fact that Jeter got on base via a hit, walk or HBP 12th amongst all these guys is very impressive.

-His Offensive Winning % is 45th-best, ever.  That includes everybody--pitchers and position players.  That's Clemens, Grove, Cy Young, Pete Rose, people better defensively than he was...everyone.  This is very high.

-His 1,909 Runs Created is 27th-best, all-time.  This is runs scored, runs batted in and everything in between.

-13th-most strikeouts ever.  I know he batted a ton of times, but this is still surprising to me.

-21st-most total bases, ever.  Again, considering all the big boys--Williams, Ruth, Gehrig, Aaron, Mays, Mantle, etc.--being 21st is very high.  Especially when you consider that those guys hit homers and Jeter hit singles and doubles.  That's a lot of singles and doubles to party with those guys in TBs.

-Player of the Week just 3 times--and Player of the Month just once!

-Never won MVP, though he did finish 2nd and 3rd a few times.  But, Pedroia excepted, American League MVPs usually go to the home run guys.

-5 Gold Gloves.  Granted, GGs are given just as much for offensive performance as it is for defensive excellence (though of course it shouldn't be that way), but, still, 5 Gold Gloves is a lot for a guy who's often ridiculed for his defense.

-Having said that, baseball-reference says he owes the Yanks 9.7 games over his career for his defense.

-But he's won them 95.3 games over his career due to his offense.  Divided by 17 or 18 full years, that's about 5 1/2 games a year, just him.  That's a lot.

-He's had 650 post-season ABs.  That's another full season.

-He had a .308 batting average and a .374 OBP during that "extra season."  Keep in mind, this is the playoffs, so this would be against the better pitching staffs in all of baseball.  The .374 OBP is more impressive than the .308 BA considering this.

-The same website has compared him to the HOF shortstops already enshrined, and had this to say:

JAWS Shortstop (12th), 71.7 career WAR/42.2 7yr-peak WAR/57.0 JAWS
Average HOF SS (out of 21) = 66.7 career WAR/42.8 7yr-peak WAR/54.7 JAWS

In other words, he's a little to quite-a-bit better than the average HOF shortstop.  In short, he's a HOFer.

The two things I'll remember most about Jeter:

1) The infamous 2004 game, weeks before Nomar got traded, in a game that Nomar refused to play, Jeter jumped into the stands to catch a foul ball--and got a bloody chin and cheek for it.  At Fenway.  Later in the game, Nomar refused to pinch-hit--for Cesar Crespo, if I'm not mistaken.  I know Salad will correct me if I am wrong about this.  :-)

The story goes that this so angered Red Sox brass that it was the last straw, and they were intent on trading Nomar after this.  In other words, if Jeter hadn't played all-out that game (as he admittedly did for all his games), then the Sox front office wouldn't have shopped Nomar--and the Sox don't win the 2004 World Series.

2.  In a 2001 playoff game against the A's, a throw gets away from the cut-off man and Jeremy Giambi (surely one of MLB's all-time bad baserunners) tries to score.  Jeter, who was roaming the infield, runs about 100 feet out of his shortstop position, grabs the ball that's trickling on the 1st-base line about 15 feet from home, and throws a shovel-pass to the catcher, Jorge Posada, who tags Giambi out.  (Giambi looks back in shock, though the real surprise is his refusal to slide, as he's tagged on his foot.)

This is ballgame with-it-ness that can't be taught.  Not too many guys have his head in the game so much to make that play.  (I played awhile, and I can honestly say that I would've watched with my mouth agape as the ball rolled away and the run scored.)  The Yanks win this playoff game 1-0, too.  Neither of these two plays show up in Jeter's defensive stats, and he was not a particularly gifted defensive shortstop like Alex Gonzalez or many others.  But Jeter has to be one of the headiest ballplayers of all-time, a player for whom the stats will not do total justice.  This says a lot, since he has Hall-of-Fame stats.

More than anything else, worthy of the Hall for his Hall-of-Fame consistency.  Offensively and defensively.  And for just the intangibles, which is usually a BS word, but not in his case.

And, finally, it's oversaid, but it's not wrong: Jeter's a guy who respected the game and the people in it.  He wouldn't have slapped the ball out of Bronson Arroyo's hand, for example.  Or put pine tar on his wrist, and then on his neck, as did the pitcher who started and won Jeter's last game.  He played the game right, and he has the $600+ million dollars and--soon--the HOF plaque to prove it.

A great player--even if he never made an appearance in my last Fenway game of this season, this past Friday, the day after his You-can't-make-it-up last game at Yankee Stadium.  Still, a great player.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Game 2--Sox 7 Yankees 4



Photo: Clay Buchholz, from his Wikipedia page.  (This isn't him pitching.  It looks sort of like he's keeping the ball in the air telepathically, after completing an ice-skating move.  But probably he's just tossing the ball underhanded to the first baseman, or something.)

My in-game notes during this one:

--Kuroda was (very quietly) the Yankees best pitcher last year, going 16-11 with a 3.32 ERA, in about 220 innings.  Sounds like a lot of tough-luck losses amongst those eleven.

--Orsillo said the reason Nava is playing and Jonny Gomes isn't is because Gomes is 0-8 against Kuroda, and Nava is 2-8 against him.  That's it?  Eight at-bats?  Is that a big enough sample?

--The pitch location and speed graphic in the middle of the right side of the screen is already seriously annoying me, two batters into the game.  It wasn't there in the first game.

--Okay, so Nava gets a well-placed single into left field, and now is hitting .333 against Kuroda (3-9).

--Pedroia gets a lot of ugly-looking hits.

--Saltalamacchia looks better at the plate.  Less of a free-swinger.  This 2-out RBI and yesterday's three walks--also rare for him--will hopefully be a sign of things to come.

--Jerry Remy's act never gets old for me.

--Jackie Bradley Jr. is already so big that The Donald agreed to meet him yesterday.

--Iglesias looked ugly trying to lay down that bunt.  He must do those little things well to stay in the bigs.

--Heidi Watney has a gig on the MLB Network, for those of you following such things.

--Jackie Bradley's first Major League hit was an RBI single, driving in a small-ball manufactured run, since Victorino had a two-out RBI single and then stole second base.  The Sox win big when they manufacture runs.  They have the personnel to do a lot of that this year, so they'd better.  They're not the Manny and Ortiz bashers anymore.

--When Ellsbury drove in two runs in the top of the third, that made 5 out of the 6 runs two-out RBIs.

--Easiest way to tell the Sox and Yanks are in trouble?  Attendance.  Despite the 40,000 + sold tickets, maybe half of that showed up, and only five thousand or so stayed until the end, when they lost by just three runs.  The Sox are also offering free-ticket promotions for Opening Day at Fenway, which is unheard of, and they're half-pricing food and beer to sell more tickets in April.

--Last year, there were never any lines at Unos at Fenway, even half an hour before the game.  That was their horrible season, right there.

--Aceves was used correctly tonight--with a big lead.  He's the bullpen's innings-eater and the team's spot-starter this year.  And he'd better watch his antics this year, as he's still on the Sox's S-list from last year.

--Buchholz gave up one run in seven innings (a bad pitch that became a solo homer) and made it look easy tonight.  Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.

--The Sox are 2-0, yes, but let's remember that the Yanks are a Triple-A team right now, without Jeter, A-Rod, Text Message, and Granderson.  And now maybe Kuroda for awhile.  Toronto and Baltimore will be more reliable tests for this team.

--Nava went 2-3 with a run scored, an RBI and a walk.  Like I said, he needed to start today instead of Jonny Gomes, who was 0-8 against Kuroda, which is obviously a big enough sample to make that decision.