Some quick points--
--Remember, it's just the Spring. I haven't seen a spring that really meant anything for the regular season since 1984, when the Tigers steamrolled through their spring and then started the Regular Season 35-5, thereby ending the race in June.
--Having said that, the Sox have looked good. Or, more accurately, they haven't looked bad. Everyone's hitting decently and nobody besides Rusney has gotten injured.
--In a weak-looking American League East, the Sox could win the division.
--Or, with injuries, they could finish last. Who knows?
--I'm sorry to lose David Ross, but he wasn't getting younger, and the Sox need to see what Swihart and company can do. The backup they got to replace Ross looks just as good defensively.
--Not sorry to see Middlebrooks go, especially since his stupid selfie took Jenny Dell away from us for awhile. And, oh yeah, he wasn't hitting or fielding well. And he did get in the way of the runner.
--Very surprised, and very glad, to hear that Jenny Dell is returning. Figured she'd go to CA with him, since they're married and all.
--And here's to hoping that all that sordidness is behind us now, and Jerry Remy can laugh again.
--The ones to watch this spring are Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Weeks, Victorino and the newest outfielders, Rusney and Moncada. I know Panda and Ramirez will hit. In the later innings of games they're ahead, Holt or Betts will take over for Hanley in left.
--Gold-glove Jackie Bradley is the odd man out in the outfield, since he's defense-only at this point, and Holt can play the outfield and infield. And Holt's still getting on base. Bradley is, too, but he did at this time last year as well, and for about a month thereafter. But then the wheels came off.
--And Daniel Nava should be looking over his shoulder, too. He can spell at first, but so can Holt (surprisingly, for his size), and Nava's not going to be a defensive replacement in the outfield. So if he's not starting, he's not playing at all. Nava is an excellent three-quarters of-the-year player (see: two years ago, when he was in the top-10 in average and OBP), but even then he never saw the playoffs.
--Two new outfielders brand new in the country just got about $100 million between them. There's a great hitter in left, GG-caliber Victorino in right, and Betts (a GG-caliber guy himself who gets on base), or Rusney Castillo when he gets healthy, or Moncada, or Brock Holt (who's almost GG-caliber himself sometimes) or Weeks in center. So, where exactly is Nava to play, except to spell Napoli at first. And what if Napoli is healthy again? I like Nava, but...Bradley, Moncada and Castillo all open in Pawtucket (or Providence?!?) this year--and all three are potential Gold Glove winners. And Moncada and Castillo are at least very good hitters. And there are too many outfielders even without those guys. If I'm Nava, I don't buy another house around here.
--Though he probably stays around if Napoli never gets fully healthy. Might see a platoon there.
--It should also be said that great three-quarters players like Nava have much better careers in the NL. Like in Philly, for example.
--Pedroia looks revitalized to me. Hopefully his hands and fingers stay healthy.
--Not having an ace is not the worst thing in the world. But Cole Hamels probably nails down the division for them.
--A trade for Hamels probably means Bogaerts and Betts and someone else from the outfield leaves, maybe Bradley if someone needs a GG-fourth outfielder, which NL teams often do, especially if the pitcher's spot comes up in the late innings. If that happens, Nava still probably doesn't have a job, as Ramirez, Victorino, one or both of the newest guys, and Brock Holt are still around. (Holt might go in that trade as well.)
--With this many pitchers who pitch to contact this year, the Sox infield had best be flawless.
--And I don't know that such a staff goes too far in the postseason, where firepower generally rules.
--Unless you're Detroit.
--Late-inning relief looks a little iffy, but I wouldn't be surprised if Uehara or one of the newest guys steps it up and does well. Mujica, I'm guessing, is gone as part of a trade.
--Betts and Holt are the lead-off batters this year. Victorino, Pedroia or Weeks in a pinch. But there's no shortage of table-setters this year.
--Pencil Big Papi in for 25-30 and 90-100 this year. But his 40/125 years are over.
--Youkilis and Manny are two more ex-patriots working for the Cubs this year, for those keeping track. Now, with the Dodgers, there are two NL Red Sox teams this year. Oakland used to be one.
--So...where will Boston finish?
--I don't see Baltimore repeating, though it could. But there seems too much uncertainty, bitterness, and flat-out hostility and strangeness going on there. Even Duquette didn't know if he wanted to come or go. Very odd for a Cinderella team like that to suddenly hate itself. I don't see Adam Jones or Davis producing like that again, at the same time. The relief looks shaky again, especially with Andrew Miller gone to NY (!). Markakis left and wasn't replaced. If they finish in first, it won't be by much. But I don't see it. Baltimore had better start off very well, or it'll implode.
--Toronto could surprise. Nobody outside the offense really stands out, but...they could win 93 games, which might be enough to win this weak division. And it should be said that the Wild Card will not come from the American League East this year.
--The Yankees, who have not replaced Rivera or Jeter, will not do well this year, as they are old, and hefty, and still A-rod-ridden. (And boring to watch. If John Sterling is the most interesting part of your team, that's not good.) A-Rod will be a huge distraction, and will undoubtedly do something to get himself released or suspended. Still, a bad team, and a circus. No, thanks.
--Tampa Bay? Maybe, but doubtful. Often, they were a decent team held together by black masking tape and Joe Maddon. And Maddon leaving tells me there was handwriting on the wall I couldn't see from here. (And the Cubs definitely colluded to get him. Where's that investigation?)
--So...Boston or Toronto or Baltimore finishes first. I'll go with Boston, with reservations. Toronto's second. Baltimore will crash and burn, then right itself when Buck Showalter gives everyone the Death Glare, and micro-manages everyone into submission. And then Dan Duquette will become his socially-endearing self and bore everyone into submission. Baltimore then floats and finishes third, at, or slightly-above, .500. New York will sink to the bottom, then panic and spend billions on over-the-hill but-still-good players and not finish in the basement. Which is where Tampa Bay will be. (Though it could be a flip with those two.)
My picks for the American League East, then:
Boston
Toronto
Baltimore
New York
Tampa Bay
That looks weird, but that's how I see it.
Any thoughts?
Showing posts with label Rivera. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rivera. Show all posts
Friday, March 13, 2015
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
My 2015 Hall of Fame Ballot
I'm not eligible to vote, of course, but if I were, I would vote for:
The three first-time no-brainers:
1. Pedro Martinez (highest peak-value pitcher of my, or any, generation; best two consecutive seasons ever; unbelievable when considering that MLB was at its offensive peak his entire career; best ERA+ ever; one year he and Clemens finished 1-2 in ERA--and Clemens' ERA was about two runs per nine innings higher that year; Red Sox personnel who saw both Martinez and Clemens pitch say unanimously that Pedro was a greater, more dominant pitcher)
2. Randy Johnson (won over 300 games; #2 Ks lifetime--and famously gave John Kruk nightmares)
3. John Smoltz (though I wish he'd remained a starter; his greatness is hard to statistically prove, but I saw his whole career, and it's there nonetheless)
A few who MLB and the Commissioner have never excluded from HOF voting because they have never, ever, not once, been proven by MLB to have used performance-enhancing drugs. And, the media is not of a higher moral caliber, AND it's the Commissioner's job to discipline or banish ballplayers (see: Pete Rose and ARod), not the HOF voters / print media. Therefore:
4. Roger Clemens (statistically one of the top-3 pitchers of all-time, with Walter Johnson and Cy Young; struck out 20 batters, in one game, twice--ten years apart)
5. Barry Bonds (statistically the best ballplayer ever, if you forget Babe Ruth would've also been in the Hall as a pitcher; the only player I've ever seen consistently intentionally walked with the bases loaded; the only player to come close to walking over 150+ times a year, every year, and who actually walked over 200 times a year--and more than once. Bonds and Clemens are amongst the few players ever to rate amongst the top-5 all-time in peak value and career value. We have never seen any one player effect a single game as much, as frequently, as Bonds did)
6. Craig Biggio (quietly kept from the Hall so far because of very quiet PED whispers; see above, and 3,000 hits and GGs at three different positions don't lie)
7. Mike Piazza (mentioned in the same breath as Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella and Johnny Bench as the best offensive catcher of all-time--though I think I could steal second off him, even now. The stats show that Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all-time; why he wasn't made a first baseman or left fielder much earlier in his career, thereby saving him from at least three career-ending concussions, is a mystery)
8. Jeff Bagwell (with hesitation, but a .297 career average, with 449 career homers, 1500+ career RBIs, 1401 career BBs, and a career .400+ OBP and a career .500+ Slugging % all mean he had one of the all-time best slugging careers--and he was a GG first baseman, too; one of the highest career-value players of all-time)
And two who are vastly underrated, if you look at their career stats versus the average HOF starting pitcher. In short, these two are slightly--or better than slightly--greater than the average HOF starting pitcher. In other words, they're Hall of Famers:
9. Curt Schilling (and not just for the bloody-sock game; one of the few pitchers to be one of the all-time best for three different teams: Phillies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox. And he was considered borderline or slightly better than borderline great while still active. #1 all-time, Ks per walk, amongst starters. He won't get too many votes in RI, or from people he pissed off with his mouth, but...)
10. Mike Mussina (career stats are better than 40 of the 59 starting pitchers in the Hall. These two are the two bulldogs of their generation--though Mussina was much quieter about it, possibly to his detriment--but are also vastly underrated considering the offensively-explosive American League East that they spent much of their careers in. Not to mention the entire offensive juggernaut all of MLB was during their whole careers, where ballparks were like pinball machines)
A few other comments:
Trammel / Morris
Many writers have put Alan Trammel on their ballots. This cannot, of course, be taken seriously, especially with Jack Morris still knocking on the door. To include his name and not Morris's is a travesty, though I am not a fan of Morris as a person. But when I think of a HOF player from the early-to-mid 80s Tigers, I think Jack Morris, not Alan Trammel. Plus, his Game 7 shutout...Jack Morris fits definition-B of a HOFer, to a T--Amongst the greatest at his position for any 10-year stretch. (Like Jim Rice, 1975-1986; Rice fits that to a T as well, and is not in--and should not be in--for any other reason.) I'll put it to you like this: Who won the most games in the 1980s? Jack Morris. The Tigers and the Twins do not win the World Series without him. I would've put Morris on my list, but you can only have 10, and the above 10 are more deserving. Maybe next year.
Tim Raines
His name has also been mentioned on many ballots. This is a surprise, yet not. Had he not played his career alongside Rickey Henderson, he'd already be in the Hall. Well, and if he hadn't slid across home plate and shattered the vial of crack cocaine in his back pocket. So, if I have it right, voters would keep Bonds and Clemens out of the Hall because of their never-proven (Did they use? Of course. But in what court was that proven, besides the Court of Public Opinion?) use of steroids, but Raines should slide in despite his very obvious use of crack cocaine? Wasn't crack cocaine on the list of banned substances as well? Having said that, he's arguably a worthy HOFer. But not this year.
Fred McGriff
Has essentially the same qualifications as I mentioned for Bagwell, but less so. But still: 2,490 hits, with 493 HRs and 1550 RBIs, with a .284 career average, a .377 career OBP, and a .500+ Slugging %. The line I draw here is a) Bagwell has to get in before McGriff; b) Bagwell was a GGer at 1B and McGriff wasn't; and c) Bagwell was considered borderline-to-better great while still playing, and McGriff wasn't. He was never even considered to be great at all during his career, nor even the best on his team. Having said that, if McGriff had gotten 10 more hits and 7 more Homers, you could say he was a .285 hitter with 500 homers and 1,500 RBIs, which would get him in, sooner or later. I'm not keeping him out because of 10 singles and 7 homers. But not this year.
Carlos Delgado
See: Fred McGriff. I'd take the Crime Dawg over Delgado in a pinch.
Lee Smith
Here's where a long career can vex lesser voters. His overall career numbers have piled up, but a pile-up of Yugos doesn't mean you have a lot of value. You just have a big pile-up. To be blunt: I saw Lee Smith's entire career, and he wasn't great. He wasn't lights-out, as a voter said today. Rivera and The Eck were lights-out closers, year in and year out, and for their careers. Trevor Hoffman, Uehara, and maybe Lee Smith had one or two or three great years (Uehara had half of a great year and turned it into a World Series ring), but that doesn't make them great. I turned away from games (though not Sox games, as Boston hit Rivera well) when Big Mo came in. But I never turned away when Lee Smith came in, especially when he pitched with the Sox. I felt teams always had a decent chance against him. A good pitcher will save the vast majority (80% to 85%) of games he pitches in, especially for just three to five batters. And that's what Smith did. Makes him good, maybe even very good, and maybe he had a couple of great seasons, but that's not the Hall of Fame to me. Rivera and The Eck didn't walk too many (they're amongst the best all-time, for relievers, at Ks per walk) and they didn't give up too many hits per nine. Lee Smith did both. With a very high 1.25 WHIP.
The three first-time no-brainers:
1. Pedro Martinez (highest peak-value pitcher of my, or any, generation; best two consecutive seasons ever; unbelievable when considering that MLB was at its offensive peak his entire career; best ERA+ ever; one year he and Clemens finished 1-2 in ERA--and Clemens' ERA was about two runs per nine innings higher that year; Red Sox personnel who saw both Martinez and Clemens pitch say unanimously that Pedro was a greater, more dominant pitcher)
2. Randy Johnson (won over 300 games; #2 Ks lifetime--and famously gave John Kruk nightmares)
3. John Smoltz (though I wish he'd remained a starter; his greatness is hard to statistically prove, but I saw his whole career, and it's there nonetheless)
A few who MLB and the Commissioner have never excluded from HOF voting because they have never, ever, not once, been proven by MLB to have used performance-enhancing drugs. And, the media is not of a higher moral caliber, AND it's the Commissioner's job to discipline or banish ballplayers (see: Pete Rose and ARod), not the HOF voters / print media. Therefore:
4. Roger Clemens (statistically one of the top-3 pitchers of all-time, with Walter Johnson and Cy Young; struck out 20 batters, in one game, twice--ten years apart)
5. Barry Bonds (statistically the best ballplayer ever, if you forget Babe Ruth would've also been in the Hall as a pitcher; the only player I've ever seen consistently intentionally walked with the bases loaded; the only player to come close to walking over 150+ times a year, every year, and who actually walked over 200 times a year--and more than once. Bonds and Clemens are amongst the few players ever to rate amongst the top-5 all-time in peak value and career value. We have never seen any one player effect a single game as much, as frequently, as Bonds did)
6. Craig Biggio (quietly kept from the Hall so far because of very quiet PED whispers; see above, and 3,000 hits and GGs at three different positions don't lie)
7. Mike Piazza (mentioned in the same breath as Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella and Johnny Bench as the best offensive catcher of all-time--though I think I could steal second off him, even now. The stats show that Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all-time; why he wasn't made a first baseman or left fielder much earlier in his career, thereby saving him from at least three career-ending concussions, is a mystery)
8. Jeff Bagwell (with hesitation, but a .297 career average, with 449 career homers, 1500+ career RBIs, 1401 career BBs, and a career .400+ OBP and a career .500+ Slugging % all mean he had one of the all-time best slugging careers--and he was a GG first baseman, too; one of the highest career-value players of all-time)
And two who are vastly underrated, if you look at their career stats versus the average HOF starting pitcher. In short, these two are slightly--or better than slightly--greater than the average HOF starting pitcher. In other words, they're Hall of Famers:
9. Curt Schilling (and not just for the bloody-sock game; one of the few pitchers to be one of the all-time best for three different teams: Phillies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox. And he was considered borderline or slightly better than borderline great while still active. #1 all-time, Ks per walk, amongst starters. He won't get too many votes in RI, or from people he pissed off with his mouth, but...)
10. Mike Mussina (career stats are better than 40 of the 59 starting pitchers in the Hall. These two are the two bulldogs of their generation--though Mussina was much quieter about it, possibly to his detriment--but are also vastly underrated considering the offensively-explosive American League East that they spent much of their careers in. Not to mention the entire offensive juggernaut all of MLB was during their whole careers, where ballparks were like pinball machines)
A few other comments:
Trammel / Morris
Many writers have put Alan Trammel on their ballots. This cannot, of course, be taken seriously, especially with Jack Morris still knocking on the door. To include his name and not Morris's is a travesty, though I am not a fan of Morris as a person. But when I think of a HOF player from the early-to-mid 80s Tigers, I think Jack Morris, not Alan Trammel. Plus, his Game 7 shutout...Jack Morris fits definition-B of a HOFer, to a T--Amongst the greatest at his position for any 10-year stretch. (Like Jim Rice, 1975-1986; Rice fits that to a T as well, and is not in--and should not be in--for any other reason.) I'll put it to you like this: Who won the most games in the 1980s? Jack Morris. The Tigers and the Twins do not win the World Series without him. I would've put Morris on my list, but you can only have 10, and the above 10 are more deserving. Maybe next year.
Tim Raines
His name has also been mentioned on many ballots. This is a surprise, yet not. Had he not played his career alongside Rickey Henderson, he'd already be in the Hall. Well, and if he hadn't slid across home plate and shattered the vial of crack cocaine in his back pocket. So, if I have it right, voters would keep Bonds and Clemens out of the Hall because of their never-proven (Did they use? Of course. But in what court was that proven, besides the Court of Public Opinion?) use of steroids, but Raines should slide in despite his very obvious use of crack cocaine? Wasn't crack cocaine on the list of banned substances as well? Having said that, he's arguably a worthy HOFer. But not this year.
Fred McGriff
Has essentially the same qualifications as I mentioned for Bagwell, but less so. But still: 2,490 hits, with 493 HRs and 1550 RBIs, with a .284 career average, a .377 career OBP, and a .500+ Slugging %. The line I draw here is a) Bagwell has to get in before McGriff; b) Bagwell was a GGer at 1B and McGriff wasn't; and c) Bagwell was considered borderline-to-better great while still playing, and McGriff wasn't. He was never even considered to be great at all during his career, nor even the best on his team. Having said that, if McGriff had gotten 10 more hits and 7 more Homers, you could say he was a .285 hitter with 500 homers and 1,500 RBIs, which would get him in, sooner or later. I'm not keeping him out because of 10 singles and 7 homers. But not this year.
Carlos Delgado
See: Fred McGriff. I'd take the Crime Dawg over Delgado in a pinch.
Lee Smith
Here's where a long career can vex lesser voters. His overall career numbers have piled up, but a pile-up of Yugos doesn't mean you have a lot of value. You just have a big pile-up. To be blunt: I saw Lee Smith's entire career, and he wasn't great. He wasn't lights-out, as a voter said today. Rivera and The Eck were lights-out closers, year in and year out, and for their careers. Trevor Hoffman, Uehara, and maybe Lee Smith had one or two or three great years (Uehara had half of a great year and turned it into a World Series ring), but that doesn't make them great. I turned away from games (though not Sox games, as Boston hit Rivera well) when Big Mo came in. But I never turned away when Lee Smith came in, especially when he pitched with the Sox. I felt teams always had a decent chance against him. A good pitcher will save the vast majority (80% to 85%) of games he pitches in, especially for just three to five batters. And that's what Smith did. Makes him good, maybe even very good, and maybe he had a couple of great seasons, but that's not the Hall of Fame to me. Rivera and The Eck didn't walk too many (they're amongst the best all-time, for relievers, at Ks per walk) and they didn't give up too many hits per nine. Lee Smith did both. With a very high 1.25 WHIP.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Back in First
Photo: Reddick between Ortiz and Pedroia, celebrating his 10th inning, game-winning hit. Matt Stone, Boston Herald
Four days' fever of over 101 degrees, plus the moving and such (and a little writing), have kept me away, but I thought it was time to add a little perspective:
--You've heard that baseball is a game of inches; this series showed this. Last night, Rivera made two mistakes: he left a ball up to Scutaro (double) and another to Pedroia (SF). That's it. The Sox finally played small ball when it mattered, which is not easy against Mo. Pedroia's sacrifice fly was just as impressive as Scutaro's double. Mo usually Ks the batter or makes him ground out (with a drawn-in infield, that's usually bad) in that situation. The Sox had missed better chances to score all game--and all series. Anyway, that's it. Two pitches slightly up. Despite a Top-5 sports reporter's column, games now have almost no bearing in October. Mo will not be fazed then by this. CC? Maybe a little bit more.
--Having said that, it is amazing that Sabathia is 10-2 against the rest of the majors, with an ERA barely above 2, and 0-4 against Boston with an ERA about 7. I repeat, though: This will matter only a little bit in October.
--The Sox 10-2 record against the Yanks is also inexplicable. But there are 7 regular season games yet between these two. If the Yanks win them all, we're having the exact opposite conversation in October.
--Here's to hoping that Reddick plays when J.D. returns. In fact, I'd prefer Reddick in right in the postseason as well. Maybe a platoon? How's Reddick hitting against lefties, anyway? Well, he's 9-23, .331, over 1.000 OPS against lefties, according to Baseball-Reference.com. How about we leave him in against both for awhile? He's being platooned against lefties; I don't see that (outside of stroking a veterans ego).
--The Yankees starting pitching staff is either seriously overachieving, or coming into its own. Nova and other unknowns have 9, 10 wins. The proof will be in October.
--Speaking of October, the Sox/Yanks have a 9+ game lead in the wild card race. What race?
--I hope I can land a playoff ticket. Last playoff game I saw was the Sox 7-run comeback against the Rays in 2008. Went with my Dad; glad I did. It was his last game.
--Speaking of starting pitching, Beckett and Lester are gonna hafta be Johnson and Schilling in order for the Sox to go anywhere in the playoffs.
--The Yanks are even more lost, with CC and who knows. Nova, I guess. Outside of those guys, Girardi pulls the starter and hopes for great relief like he got on Friday night. Every game. Or the offense will have to pound the other team into submission.
--By the way, I ran into some Action Packed (that's the brand name) football cards from 1993-1995. Includes a Marshall Faulk rookie card (worth $10), and some Montanas, Elways, Marinos, Bledsoes, and other HOFers and stars. All great shape; no wear or tear, corners sharp. It's all worth over $42, but I'll let it go for $20; I'm moving and don't feel like dealing with more cards (I have literally thousands already). Drop me an email at sb {at} stevenbelanger {dot} com if you're interested.
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