I'm Okay with this Non-Trade

Photo: Frazier, Robertson and Kahnle, from this mlb.com page.

The Sox didn't need Todd Frazier and David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle (who has serious promise) for what the White Sox must've been asking. Chicago got Tyler Clippard, who's an okay middle relief guy, but also #30 prospect Blake Rutherford, lefty Ian Clarkin and OF Tito Polo (an awesome name) from the Yanks, who by making this trade continue to get older as they deal away their young prospects.

Boston's bullpen is already amongst the best in baseball, so shelling out serious prospects for two more relievers is a questionable move. Robertson is tempting because he's solid and he's signed through next year, but I'm a little concerned with how frequently he moves around. He's been traded a lot, which means he's a good player but not someone who must be held onto. He was a free agent signing recently as the Yanks let him go, but why was that?

As for Frazier, he's barely hitting above the Mendoza line for the year, and has hit about .233 since June. He's got good power numbers and he's solid at third, but he's also a free agent at the end of this season. His pull swing would work well at Fenway because of The Wall, but it won't work as well at Yankee Stadium, where it's deeper to left. He's not better defensively than Marrero, and his average isn't better than Marrero's or Holt's, and the Sox already have players who can give you the occasional dinger, as Hanley showed in the 15th inning at 1 a.m. this morning, which I actually saw because I'm on vacation. In fact, if Ramirez, Betts and Bradley can hit like we know they can, the homers they produce will more than compensate for whatever Frazier could've given them. 

So to trade even more prospects from a prospect-depleted system for a guy who you may have for just half a season, who isn't better defensively than who you already have, and who won't produce more homers and RBIs than guys you already have in the lineup (if they get on track) doesn't make sense to me at all. And it also doesn't make sense to get two more relievers and disrupt a bullpen that's already one of the best in the majors.

I'd pass on this. This was an okay non-trade for me.

David Ortiz's Book, Papi, Is A Huge Strikeout

Photo: from the book's Goodreads page, here.

Very disappointing book, more notable for the stuff he leaves out than for what he puts in. This is mostly a gripe session, with a surprising number of motherf---er bombs, considering his younger fanbase. If you want to read about what a motherf---er former Sox GM Theo Epstein was while they talked contracts, and about how much of a motherf---er Twins manager Tom Kelly was all the time, and about how much confidence he has in himself, which is necessary because everyone will disrespect you and you have to defend yourself and tell them who you really are, then this book is for you. He even takes a few stabs at Terry Francona, who he never respected again after Tito pinch-hit for him in Toronto three or four years ago. Yet wasn't he hitting about .220 at the time?

But I'd been hoping instead for a bit more about 2004, about the postseason. Those were covered in a few short pages. Or about 2007, and Curt Schilling's bloody sock, or something about J.D. Drew or Josh Beckett or, hell, anything at all about any of the more important games that year? Maybe something about Youkilis, who nobody remembers anymore. How about how Colorado finished the season 22-1 and then got swept in the World Series? Nope. Maybe 2013? How about some stories about Jonny Gomes, or Napoli, or anyone else? What about that ALCS against the Tigers, when Ortiz hit the season's most important homerun, before Napoli hit his against Verlander in that 1-0 game? How about how the Sox hit maybe the Mendoza line combined for the series, yet won it in 6 games? How about anything at all about Uehara? Maybe the World Series, which had a game that ended with a runner picked off third and was followed by a game that ended with a runner picked off first. Nope. Maybe a paragraph apiece, and nothing at all about any of the specific ALCS or World Series games. Not even anything about his World Series game-winning hits, except that he hit them, and who he hit them off. No commentary; no in-depth analysis, nothing. He proves he had a helluva memory for who threw what to him months ago, which he'd then look for months later, but that's it.

You get a really short chapter about what a butthole Bobby Valentine was, which I already knew, and I detested him then and now and for that whole year. Valentine was a baseball version of Trump, and it's no surprise to me at all that they're actually friends--if either guy can be said to have a friend, as opposed to a mutual, leech-like attraction. But there's nothing new here at all. The few things that may be news to some, like how his marriage almost fell apart, is never given specifics. I'm not expecting The Inquirer here, but give me something. Didn't get it.

I'm telling you, this book is at least 75% about how he was disrespected by contracts and PED accusations. He never mentions HGH, of course, and he never gave honest accolades to people he trashed, like Francona and Epstein. It all comes across as very bitter grapes from someone you might think doesn't have much to be bitter about. He has a few decent points that non-Sox fans may not know, like how the Sox underpays its stars (Pedroia notoriously got a home-discount contract that this book never mentions; Pedroia is more underpaid now than Ortiz ever was, dollar for dollar) and yet overpays its free agent signings--like Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. And Carl Crawford. And Julio Lugo. And Edgar Renteria. And Rusney Castillo. You knew this already as a fan, but the sheer number of examples is staggering. Yet even this is harped on again and again, its repetition taking up space you wanted reserved for funny or interesting anecdotes about some players. Hell, how about Orsillo, or Remy, or Castig? How about how he was able to have the single-best last season of any hitter in history? How about any stories at all about fans he's spoken to over the years, especially in 2013?

Nope. You get a chapter about his charity, but nothing about other players' charities. Very disappointing. Ortiz was one of my favorite players, and still is, but as a baseball memoirist, he swings and misses. This book is truly a money-making grab off his retirement. Even non-Sox fans won't learn anything new here, which is a mystery because it's clearly written for a common Sox fan. And believe me, I'm no baseball prude, but the loud volume of motherf---ers and other punches and jibes is shocking, considering he has to know that kids and pre-teens will want to read this. But, Dads out there, beware: They probably shouldn't. Also shocking because it's otherwise such a light read, you'd think it was meant for a light (ie--young and/or new) fan. The diatribes and whining don't make it any less light, so it's essentially a fluff piece with a lot of whining, swears and overall negativity.

Shockingly disappointing.

Sox 4 Games Out on 6.26.16

Photo: from the great Sox/Giants game on 6.7.16. This is just after Chris Young contorted himself by somehow moving his arm out of the way, mid-slide, to avoid a tag by Brandon Belt. Ortiz was out at first, but by staying out of the double play, the tying run scored.

So it has become obvious that the Sox will not contend in the American League East without some drastic changes. Despite the awesomeness of last month, one 30-day span does not make a whole season, and the offense could not have possibly kept up that incredible pace.

In fact:

--no offense will literally score 6+ runs every game, especially when the starting pitching puts it into a deep hole right away. I think this offense could be better than it is--and not leave the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth without scoring--but it won't if it feels pressure to do too much in every at-bat. A player will hit better when there's no stress or pressure on him--but there is pressure on him if his starter has given up a few runs in the first or second inning already. That's why the Sox won so many games last month: they scored in the first inning constantly and put pressure on the other team. Now other teams are doing that to the Sox.

--and that's not the fault of the offense. Sure, this offense has had some blips, especially the White Sox / Wright game, which actually was the offense's fault, as Wright pitched 9 great innings. But that was an anomaly. (And the White Sox left the bases loaded twice without scoring while losing a later game.) Simply put, the bad starting pitching has put more pressure on the offense, which tightens the batters up and makes them worse.

--if the starting pitching improves, the offense will improve.

So how to make the starting pitching improve?

The face and stats make it clear that the answer isn't this guy:

(Photo from my own camera. Saw this on my DVRed game on NESN and I couldn't resist.)

So who is the answer?

Well, I was in Pawtucket today, to watch who may be the only answer there: Henry Owens. Sadly, he continues to do the same thing: 2-0 and 3-1 on everybody, thereby becoming predictable and giving up lots of hits and walks and throwing too many pitches, and he's out of the game before the end of the 5th. (See: Eduardo Rodriguez and Clay Buchholz.)

He's not the answer, and won't be. He's been given a few years of chances and he hasn't changed. This pains me to say, as I have an autographed and slabbed RC of his, but it is what it is. He won't be any better than he is. I hope he proves me wrong in his September call-up, but he won't. Again. This is especially bad because his performances don't even make him good trade bait. He might be enticing for someone who wants to deal a reliever, or some bench help, but you won't get starting pitching for him.

So who can bring a top-flight starter?

Well, Bogaerts, Betts or Bradley could, but no way do you trade any of these guys. They'll bring butts to the stands even if the Sox aren't making the playoffs. These guys are All-Star caliber core players for many years, as they're all young and cheap. None of them are making more than $600,000 this year. (As opposed to Sandoval, who's getting $17 million this year not to play at all.) In baseball economics, they are very cheap, and will be until 2020. So they stay. So who?

Nobody wants Rusney Castillo, of course. He hit a seeing-eye single today and made a nice running catch, his back to the plate--but he also threw to third when he had no shot at the guy, thereby allowing the batter to get to second base. That reminded me of Tom Hanks in A League of Their Own, who told a sobbing woman she can't throw to third and allow another runner (the tying run in the movie) to reach second base. If he knew that, wouldn't a star of the Cuban League, who's been playing ball all of his adult life? That's the kind of basic knowledge Jerry Remy said Castillo didn't have, and he said it last year. Castillo is a $70+ million waste of a Triple-A roster spot. That especially sucks because I have his rookie card in gem 10 condition. (Anybody want it?)

I would've said a package of Swihart (who can hit, and play left and catch decently) and Brock Holt and Rutledge may have been enough to send to the cash-strapped A's (Billy Beane loves cheap versatility) for Rich Hill, but all of those guys are injured, and nobody's desperate enough to take three guys just off the DL. (By the way, check out how well Hill is doing, and see the blog I wrote at the end of last year, saying the Sox were crazy to let him go, and for nothing!) Maybe they can get better and play really well before the Trade Deadline at the end of next month, but that's a lot to ask.

That package isn't enough for Sonny Gray, but I'm not interested in him, anyway. Though Hill is in his mid-30s, he's a resurging junkballer, and those guys can pitch into their early-40s. I think Sonny Gray is damaged goods and is looking at his best days in the rearview mirror.

It's a long shot, but I'd be willing to part with Hanley Ramirez, but he's not cheap, so the A's wouldn't want him. But how about him and all of the aforementioned guys, and a lot of money, to the Marlins for Jose Fernandez? Ramirez likes Miami, but they've probably tired of him there. Remember when the Sox traded him there for Josh Beckett and a throw-in named Mike Lowell? That trade won 2007.

Well, I hate to say it, but for a #1 or #2 starter, you're going to have to deal away Andrew Benintendi and / or Yoan Moncada. Certainly these guys--and even one of these guys--are too good to part with for the likes of Rich Hill, but they are good enough chips to get a solid #2 or even a #1 on a really bad team. I'd rather trade these maybes than the definite Yeses of Bogaerts, Betts and Bradley any day. Remember how Brian Rose and Carl Pavano were the best young starters in all of baseball, and the Sox traded them both for Pedro Martinez? Do you remember that local fans at the time were in an uproar? But how did that turn out?

Unfortunately here, it's a lot easier to trade starting pitching for starting pitching, than it is to trade an infielder and an outfielder for starting pitching, but it's still doable.  Benintendi and Moncada are thought of so highly in baseball that they could swing a #1. If the Sox are going to land one, these guys (or, hopefully, just one of these guys, and don't ask me which one) are going to have to be flipped. It's worth doing, especially for a good pitcher who's still decently young, and under some control.

If the Sox were to turn them both over for Fernandez--who the Marlins are rumored to be dealing--that would be a helluva thing. They're cash-strapped, too, and certainly a combination of Benintendi and / or Moncada, plus Hanley Ramirez, Swihart and either Holt or Rutledge would get Fernandez from Miami. Maybe throw Christian Vazquez, too, as much as I like his defense. But he's never going to hit, and I'm not as happy with his pitch-calling and strike-framing as others are.

Anyway, to get a #1 or a #2, I would try to do these.

Until then, the starters need to walk fewer, keep their pitches down, get ahead in the count and stop being so predictable. The offense needs to hit with RISP and do all those little things that haven't been done consistently since that game mentioned in the beginning of this (long) blog entry.

By the way, notice how the slide started when the Sox lost Carson Smith for the season, and Brock Holt for over 6 weeks? Brock Holt is the player the sabermetricians don't have a stat for, but he gels this offense, and does every single little thing very well. I saw him today, too. He got on base 3 times.

Time to call him up.

Sox 6-4 After 10 Games in 2016

Well, now it's 6-5 after 11 games, the early afternoon of the Patriots Day game. Here's what it looks like to me so far:

--Hanley Ramirez has shockingly impressed. Not only is he much better at first base than anyone could have (or should have) expected, but he's also got a much better attitude. He has hustled and gestured more so far this year than he did all of last year.

--He's hitting over .300, but his OPS is about .850. That should improve as we go.

--If the Sox go 6-4 every 10 games, they'll finish 97-65, which will be plenty to win the division.

--If the bullpen and/or starting rotation doesn't implode first.

--Like it just did, now, on 4.18.16. Patriot's Day, no less.

--I haven't seen anyone throw as many balls with 2 strikes on the batter as Kimbrel does. He gets paid for situations like today, and he K'ed 2, but only after he struck out the first guy, walked the next two, and allowed a base hit. He allowed all 3 runners to score, and gave up one of his own.

--That's not going to get it done, though the Sox can't expect to win 1-0, either.

--Tazawa, Uehara and Kimbrel are overworked. They need Carson Smith back, fast.

--The Christian Vasquez thing, about him being much better with the pitchers, might be a tad over-rated.

--But he's the best they've got on stealing strikes.

--Can you remember the last time Sox tickets were available this easily? Season-ticket packages, too.

--But when you finish last 3 of the previous 4 years, that'll happen, even with a ring thrown in.

--If the Sox are near .500 a month from now, Farrell will be shown the door.

--And Carl Willis, too.

--I'm 0-1 at Fenway so far this year. Wish me luck tomorrow.

Sox 9-5 So Far; Beat Rays 1-0

It's been awhile, I know.  I was going to try to write a blog entry after every ten games, so I'm just four games late doing that.  Well, anyway, some thoughts, fourteen games into the season:

--Like everyone else, I like Mookie Betts.  He's young, and fast, and he has some pop.  He can steal second and third on the same pitch (which I'd never seen before, and I've seen literally over a thousand games), and he can break up the double play like he did today (thereby winning the game, as it was the game's only run).  He can run and he can field and he drove in some important runs in the Sox's first few games...

...but, despite the pro-Mookie commercials on NESN all season, he's hovering around .200 and not drawing any walks.  His OBP is below .300--and he's the lead-off hitter.  He's struck out a lot.

I know it's early, but let's cut the fanfare for now.  Maybe he's feeling some pressure--very understandable, if so.  If that's the case, let's not play the "Mookie is awesome" commercials.  Let's give him a couple of days off, if we can.  Let's remember that he's 22 years old.

--And let's give the cheerleading commercials and rave reviews to whom they belong: Brock Holt.  He's just as fast, if not faster.  He's hitting over .400.  He's playing Gold Glove defense in the outfield and in the infield.  He made two game-saving plays today against the Rays to preserve the 1-0 win.  And he's now the lead-off hitter.  So, if there are accolades to be given, let's give them to him.

--The Sox overall are hitting about .238 as a team.  That's just a few points higher than the Rays--and the Rays are thought to be the worst-hitting team in the league.

--Speaking of the Rays, Evan Longoria must be wondering what he did to deserve this year.

--But it's nice to see Rocco Baldelli again.  (He's coaching first base for the Rays.  He played for the Rays and Sox.  And he went to school and played ball about half a mile from my house.)  Rocco needs to lose the beard, though.

--For those who care, Lou Merloni played ball at PC, just ten miles from here.  And Rheal Cormier (who also played for the Sox and Rays) played ball at CCRI, just three miles from here.

--I'm (barely) smart enough to look up some stats before I type them here.  For the record, the Sox were a .500 team in 1-0 games last year, and they played more than you and I remember.  But I was going to type that they didn't play that many, and the ones they did, they lost.  Doesn't it seem that way?  But we live in a world of seems.

--Speaking of seems, Ryan Hanigan--the Sox catcher now that Christian Vazquez is out for the year--is hitting well below .200, but with a .400 OBP.  I've seen every game this year, and it seems like he's getting one or two hits per game to me.  Obviously, he's not. (He did today.)  But it seems like he's grounding at least one single up the middle per game.  And that two-run homer was a bomb.  But he's amongst the league-leaders in walks, with 8, which gives him a .400 OBP.  (He's also been hit by a pitch a few times already, including twice in the same game.  I'd be surprised if he wasn't among the league-leaders in HBP, too.)  And he's throwing runners out and calling a great game.  I have no problem with he and the other guy, whoever he is.

--You don't remember his name, either.  But he could throw us out at second, no matter where he is.

--Okay, I just looked it up.  It's Sandy Leon.  Oh, please.  You didn't know that, either.

--Junichi Tazawa looks like a new, refreshed guy this year.  And he's throwing like it, too.  If Ogando can stay as effective as he's been (and he blew away a Rays hitter with the bases loaded today to preserve the 1-0 lead), then the Sox have a potent 7th, 8th and 9th inning tandem with Ogando, Tazawa and Uehara.  That bodes well for the playoffs, if they make it.

--The starting pitching is what I thought it would be, so far: pretty good, with occasional blow-ups when they hang their splits and off-speed pitches.  All five of these guys have to hit their spots, play north-south-east-west with the strike zone, and not walk anyone.  None of them can just rear back and fire it past anyone.

--Having said that, I foresee an overworked bullpen all year long.  Especially in the playoffs.

--"Playoffs?!?  Playoffs???  Don't talk to me about the playoffs!  Playoffs?!?"  (Sorry.)

--Hanley Ramirez looks like another Ramirez in left field.  And, sometimes, at the plate.  (Only the second one there was a compliment, for those not in the know.)

--Victorino doesn't look like he's going to make the whole year, physically.  Or, based on his performance.  He suddenly looks older and slower.

--Panda needs to lose a little of the heft.  His is bigger than Ortiz's.

--And Ortiz needs to do something about his play at the plate.  He should take the one-day suspension and work on his swing--and his attitude.  (But he's not.  He's appealing it.  Is there a series coming up soon in a National League park?)

--Having said that, those two check-swings were not strikes.  But the past is maybe evening out on him now.  The umps must've gotten together over the winter and decided that they'd had enough.

--And Ortiz also looks older and slower at the plate.  He's swinging at things he hasn't before.  He's not swinging at things he should be.  And he's looking mostly overmatched and confused up there.

--The Sox have not lost a series yet.  (They split in Baltimore.)  They've won every single first-game.

--And they've played well against the Nationals, who're very good, and the Orioles, who could be.

--I haven't seen such poor defense played against the Sox like I have in these first 14 games.

--Nava might be a better first baseman than an outfielder.  He picks it out of the dirt really well.  He made some fantastic scoops in today's game, including the one that was the last out.  But he's not hitting, either.

--The Sox have already shown more hustle this year than they did throughout all of last year.

Red Sox 2015 Spring So Far, and My Picks

Some quick points--

--Remember, it's just the Spring.  I haven't seen a spring that really meant anything for the regular season since 1984, when the Tigers steamrolled through their spring and then started the Regular Season 35-5, thereby ending the race in June.

--Having said that, the Sox have looked good.  Or, more accurately, they haven't looked bad.  Everyone's hitting decently and nobody besides Rusney has gotten injured.

--In a weak-looking American League East, the Sox could win the division.

--Or, with injuries, they could finish last.  Who knows?

--I'm sorry to lose David Ross, but he wasn't getting younger, and the Sox need to see what Swihart and company can do.  The backup they got to replace Ross looks just as good defensively.

--Not sorry to see Middlebrooks go, especially since his stupid selfie took Jenny Dell away from us for awhile.  And, oh yeah, he wasn't hitting or fielding well.  And he did get in the way of the runner.

--Very surprised, and very glad, to hear that Jenny Dell is returning.  Figured she'd go to CA with him, since they're married and all.

--And here's to hoping that all that sordidness is behind us now, and Jerry Remy can laugh again.

--The ones to watch this spring are Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Weeks, Victorino and the newest outfielders, Rusney and Moncada.  I know Panda and Ramirez will hit.  In the later innings of games they're ahead, Holt or Betts will take over for Hanley in left.

--Gold-glove Jackie Bradley is the odd man out in the outfield, since he's defense-only at this point, and Holt can play the outfield and infield.  And Holt's still getting on base.  Bradley is, too, but he did at this time last year as well, and for about a month thereafter.  But then the wheels came off.

--And Daniel Nava should be looking over his shoulder, too.  He can spell at first, but so can Holt (surprisingly, for his size), and Nava's not going to be a defensive replacement in the outfield.  So if he's not starting, he's not playing at all.  Nava is an excellent three-quarters of-the-year player (see: two years ago, when he was in the top-10 in average and OBP), but even then he never saw the playoffs.

--Two new outfielders brand new in the country just got about $100 million between them.  There's a great hitter in left, GG-caliber Victorino in right, and Betts (a GG-caliber guy himself who gets on base), or Rusney Castillo when he gets healthy, or Moncada, or Brock Holt (who's almost GG-caliber himself sometimes) or Weeks in center.  So, where exactly is Nava to play, except to spell Napoli at first.  And what if Napoli is healthy again?  I like Nava, but...Bradley, Moncada and Castillo all open in Pawtucket (or Providence?!?) this year--and all three are potential Gold Glove winners.  And Moncada and Castillo are at least very good hitters.  And there are too many outfielders even without those guys.  If I'm Nava, I don't buy another house around here.

--Though he probably stays around if Napoli never gets fully healthy.  Might see a platoon there.

--It should also be said that great three-quarters players like Nava have much better careers in the NL.  Like in Philly, for example.

--Pedroia looks revitalized to me.  Hopefully his hands and fingers stay healthy.

--Not having an ace is not the worst thing in the world.  But Cole Hamels probably nails down the division for them.

--A trade for Hamels probably means Bogaerts and Betts and someone else from the outfield leaves, maybe Bradley if someone needs a GG-fourth outfielder, which NL teams often do, especially if the pitcher's spot comes up in the late innings.  If that happens, Nava still probably doesn't have a job, as Ramirez, Victorino, one or both of the newest guys, and Brock Holt are still around.  (Holt might go in that trade as well.)

--With this many pitchers who pitch to contact this year, the Sox infield had best be flawless.

--And I don't know that such a staff goes too far in the postseason, where firepower generally rules.

--Unless you're Detroit.

--Late-inning relief looks a little iffy, but I wouldn't be surprised if Uehara or one of the newest guys steps it up and does well.  Mujica, I'm guessing, is gone as part of a trade.

--Betts and Holt are the lead-off batters this year.  Victorino, Pedroia or Weeks in a pinch.  But there's no shortage of table-setters this year.

--Pencil Big Papi in for 25-30 and 90-100 this year.  But his 40/125 years are over.

--Youkilis and Manny are two more ex-patriots working for the Cubs this year, for those keeping track.  Now, with the Dodgers, there are two NL Red Sox teams this year.  Oakland used to be one.

--So...where will Boston finish?

--I don't see Baltimore repeating, though it could.  But there seems too much uncertainty, bitterness, and flat-out hostility and strangeness going on there.  Even Duquette didn't know if he wanted to come or go.  Very odd for a Cinderella team like that to suddenly hate itself.  I don't see Adam Jones or Davis producing like that again, at the same time.  The relief looks shaky again, especially with Andrew Miller gone to NY (!).  Markakis left and wasn't replaced.  If they finish in first, it won't be by much.  But I don't see it.  Baltimore had better start off very well, or it'll implode. 

--Toronto could surprise.  Nobody outside the offense really stands out, but...they could win 93 games, which might be enough to win this weak division.  And it should be said that the Wild Card will not come from the American League East this year.

--The Yankees, who have not replaced Rivera or Jeter, will not do well this year, as they are old, and hefty, and still A-rod-ridden.  (And boring to watch.  If John Sterling is the most interesting part of your team, that's not good.)  A-Rod will be a huge distraction, and will undoubtedly do something to get himself released or suspended.  Still, a bad team, and a circus.  No, thanks.

--Tampa Bay?  Maybe, but doubtful.  Often, they were a decent team held together by black masking tape and Joe Maddon.  And Maddon leaving tells me there was handwriting on the wall I couldn't see from here.  (And the Cubs definitely colluded to get him.  Where's that investigation?)

--So...Boston or Toronto or Baltimore finishes first.  I'll go with Boston, with reservations.  Toronto's second.  Baltimore will crash and burn, then right itself when Buck Showalter gives everyone the Death Glare, and micro-manages everyone into submission.  And then Dan Duquette will become his socially-endearing self and bore everyone into submission.  Baltimore then floats and finishes third, at, or slightly-above, .500.  New York will sink to the bottom, then panic and spend billions on over-the-hill but-still-good players and not finish in the basement.  Which is where Tampa Bay will be.  (Though it could be a flip with those two.)

My picks for the American League East, then:

Boston
Toronto
Baltimore
New York
Tampa Bay

That looks weird, but that's how I see it.

Any thoughts?